Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 12.491643 14.292342 16.230660 18.468498 20.977029 23.698307 26.869811
2025-06-22 9.983829 12.457905 15.325775 18.880362 23.151199 28.099921 34.249580
2025-06-29 8.453730 11.161390 14.453707 18.722973 24.080756 30.547462 38.904956
2025-07-06 6.949980 9.674109 13.137032 17.818173 23.930409 31.584082 41.828391
2025-07-13 6.316239 9.186275 12.970973 18.263964 25.400613 34.604897 47.273605
2025-07-20 5.759198 8.723105 12.765771 18.597743 26.693194 37.415076 52.545529
2025-07-27 5.169939 8.140295 12.323898 18.538581 27.403633 39.438657 56.818959
2025-08-03 4.621196 7.552797 11.810600 18.314028 27.832687 41.058129 60.573471
2025-08-10 4.212514 7.129310 11.488503 18.320452 28.559159 43.089639 64.954760
2025-08-17 3.898257 6.817780 11.299597 18.494255 29.515225 45.464111 69.898556
2025-08-24 3.571833 6.452922 10.993910 18.456571 30.134073 47.355168 74.199162
2025-08-31 3.260702 6.081788 10.644475 18.315974 30.570260 48.973684 78.140835
2025-09-07 3.032455 5.835463 10.484421 18.475894 31.497523 51.397698 83.441415
2025-09-14 2.894020 5.732752 10.551704 19.005637 33.033480 54.814872 90.396254
2025-09-21 2.640863 5.398411 10.198717 18.806239 33.369515 56.368589 94.517763
2025-09-28 2.301380 4.870556 9.468166 17.911632 32.502478 55.971049 95.545145
2025-10-05 2.201518 4.786747 9.513152 18.354556 33.882796 59.211020 102.459491
2025-10-12 2.093897 4.677069 9.501246 18.691570 35.092530 62.214207 109.096414
2025-10-19 1.941343 4.462556 9.278507 18.631526 35.605590 64.081809 113.939951
2025-10-26 1.781605 4.217307 8.978099 18.406185 35.808946 65.429660 117.961423
2025-11-02 1.663599 4.047973 8.809721 18.412562 36.418551 67.478055 123.216080
2025-11-09 1.573922 3.930860 8.734127 18.587169 37.335457 70.080033 129.490068
2025-11-16 1.468537 3.768570 8.555449 18.549307 37.854988 72.005925 134.666746